Vietnam Projected to Join World’s Fastest-Growing Trade Economies by 2030
Vietnam is poised to become one of the world’s 30 fastest-growing economies in terms of both trade growth speed and absolute volume increase by 2030, according to a recent forecast by German logistics giant DHL
The Business Times, citing DHL’s latest report, indicates that Southeast Asian countries are set for accelerated trade growth over the next five years. Vietnam, alongside Indonesia and the Philippines, is expected to feature prominently among the world’s fastest-growing trade economies by the end of this decade
Vietnam’s trade volume is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% between 2024 and 2029, marking an increase from the 6.2% growth rate recorded during the 2019-2024 period. This robust growth trajectory positions Vietnam as a key player in the global trade landscape.
Despite concerns about potential trade barriers, the report suggests that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are unlikely to reverse the overall trend of global trade growth. Instead, geopolitical tensions are fueling interest in supply chain diversification strategies, particularly the “China+1” approach.
A significant driver of Vietnam’s trade growth is its increasing role as a preferred alternative for businesses seeking to diversify their supply chains beyond China. The electronics manufacturing sector has been particularly successful, with Vietnam emerging as a favored destination for companies implementing supply chain diversification strategies.
DHL’s analysis highlights Southeast Asia’s growing importance as a manufacturing hub for European and North American firms. With Vietnam already ranking among the world’s top 40 economies and top 20 in global trade volume, its ascension into the top 30 fastest-growing economies in terms of trade appears increasingly achievable.
The impressive growth in Vietnam’s electronics sector, which generated $126.5 billion in export revenue in 2024 (accounting for over one-third of the country’s total exports), exemplifies this positive trend. This sector alone saw a substantial increase of $17 billion compared to the previous year, demonstrating Vietnam’s strengthening position in global supply chains.
