ASEAN at a Strategic Crossroads: Great-Power Rivalry and the Challenge of Regional Unity
The 48th ASEAN Summit took place against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and growing challenges to regional security. Disruptions to global energy supplies, escalating US–China strategic competition, and persistent disagreements among member states have exposed structural weaknesses in ASEAN’s decision-making mechanisms, raising concerns about its ability to maintain regional cohesion and strategic autonomy.
Economic instability and energy insecurity have emerged as immediate challenges for Southeast Asia. The conflict involving Iran has disrupted energy markets and increased pressure on regional economies dependent on imported fuel. Meanwhile, US tariff policies and tighter scrutiny of Chinese goods transshipped through Southeast Asia have complicated trade relations and heightened uncertainty across regional supply chains. These developments underscore ASEAN’s vulnerability to external economic shocks and the growing difficulty of formulating coordinated regional responses.
Great-power competition presents an even more fundamental challenge to ASEAN’s institutional effectiveness. Traditionally, ASEAN has pursued a strategy of balancing relations with Washington and Beijing while emphasizing consensus, non-interference, and regional autonomy. However, diverging national interests increasingly constrain collective decision-making. Negotiations over the South China Sea Code of Conduct illustrate these limitations, as competing strategic priorities and external pressures continue to obstruct progress. Rising tensions between China and the Philippines have further encouraged Manila to strengthen security cooperation with the United States and other partners.
These developments highlight the risk of institutional fragmentation within ASEAN. Although consensus-based diplomacy has facilitated economic cooperation and regional dialogue, it has proved less effective in addressing contentious security issues. Consequently, member states may increasingly pursue bilateral arrangements or alternative multilateral partnerships when regional institutions fail to accommodate their security interests. Such fragmentation could weaken ASEAN’s collective influence and undermine its central position in the Indo-Pacific security architecture.
Ultimately, the summit underscores a fundamental dilemma confronting ASEAN: preserving consensus and neutrality while responding effectively to intensifying geopolitical competition. Without stronger institutional coordination and greater convergence among member states, ASEAN risks losing influence over decisions affecting regional security and economic stability. Its long-term relevance will increasingly depend on reconciling diverse national interests with a credible collective response to external strategic pressures.
